Interesting order tracking statistics

[drtoast]

Hi All,

I placed my G1G1 order on November 11. Since February 6, I've been running a nightly script that checks each G1G1 order number on their tracking page, to give me a better picture of how many folks were in the same boat as me, and what ranges of order numbers were getting higher priority. I was a bit shocked when my laptop suddenly arrived last week. (I got the "Coming soon: Your XO laptop" email a few days later.)

Now I'll be shutting down my tracking script since I don't need the statistics anymore and don't want to keep hammering their server, but thought I would post the latest summary for the rest of you who are still waiting. I can send the script itself (in Ruby/ActiveRecord with a MySQL database) to anyone who wants to continue running it.

A few quick observations based on these stats: right now there are about 45,000 laptops that have shipped, and about 24,000 that have not. The laptops have been going out at a trickle for the last several weeks, although there was a big spike of over 5000 laptops that went out on March 3 (mine was in that batch). Most of those being shipped previously had the status "Your donation is at our warehouse and your laptop is in the process of being shipped".

The summary below is broken down by each unique status message. Under the status message is each block of 10,000 order numbers (the leading zeroes are not displayed), followed by the number of orders in that range with that message on the specified date, and the delta from the previous day in parentheses, if non-zero. After the list of order number blocks is a summary of all orders with that message. Sorry about the wrapping, just copy and paste it into a wide text document to make it more legible.

"Please contact Donor Services at 1-800-201-7144 for a status on your donation."
#0-9999: 2/6 = 300
#10000-19999: 2/6 = 114
#20000-29999: 2/6 = 1
#50000-59999: 2/6 = 4184
#60000-69999: 2/6 = 758
#70000-73729: 2/6 = 1
totals: 2/6 = 5358

"Tracking Number"
#0-9999: 2/6 = 7651, 2/7 = 7851 (+200), 2/15 = 7852 (+1), 2/21 = 7853 (+1), 3/3 = 8490 (+637), 3/8 = 8491 (+1)
#10000-19999: 2/6 = 8263, 2/7 = 8461 (+198), 2/15 = 8492 (+31), 2/21 = 8497 (+5), 3/3 = 9181 (+684)
#20000-29999: 2/6 = 7967, 2/7 = 8150 (+183), 2/15 = 8154 (+4), 2/21 = 8157 (+3), 3/3 = 8951 (+794)
#30000-39999: 2/6 = 7015, 2/7 = 7092 (+77), 2/12 = 7093 (+1), 2/15 = 7096 (+3), 3/3 = 9030 (+1934)
#40000-49999: 2/6 = 7284, 2/7 = 7375 (+91), 2/21 = 7377 (+2), 2/26 = 7378 (+1), 3/3 = 8627 (+1249)
#50000-59999: 2/6 = 1016, 2/7 = 1024 (+8), 3/3 = 1066 (+42)
#60000-69999: 2/6 = 1, 2/26 = 2 (+1)
#70000-73729: 2/6 = 2, 2/12 = 3 (+1)
totals: 2/6 = 39199, 2/7 = 39956 (+757), 2/12 = 39958 (+2), 2/15 = 39997 (+39), 2/21 = 40008 (+11), 2/26 = 40010 (+2), 3/3 = 45350 (+5340), 3/8 = 45351 (+1)

"We are having an issue verifying your address. If you have previously contacted Donor Services regarding this issue, please allow up to 7 days for your information to be updated in our system."
#0-9999: 2/6 = 1142, 2/7 = 1116 (-26), 2/13 = 1058 (-58), 2/15 = 919 (-139)
#10000-19999: 2/6 = 574, 2/7 = 539 (-35), 2/13 = 500 (-39), 2/15 = 332 (-168)
#20000-29999: 2/6 = 788, 2/7 = 746 (-42), 2/13 = 717 (-29), 2/15 = 621 (-96)
#30000-39999: 2/6 = 680, 2/7 = 650 (-30), 2/13 = 608 (-42), 2/15 = 452 (-156)
#40000-49999: 2/6 = 820, 2/7 = 785 (-35), 2/13 = 744 (-41), 2/15 = 617 (-127)
#50000-59999: 2/6 = 581, 2/7 = 559 (-22), 2/13 = 528 (-31), 2/15 = 500 (-28)
#60000-69999: 2/6 = 1045, 2/7 = 1007 (-38), 2/13 = 954 (-53), 2/15 = 913 (-41)
#70000-73729: 2/6 = 406, 2/7 = 395 (-11), 2/13 = 365 (-30), 2/15 = 184 (-181)
totals: 2/6 = 6036, 2/7 = 5797 (-239), 2/13 = 5474 (-323), 2/15 = 4538 (-936)

"Your donation is at our warehouse and your laptop is in the process of being shipped."
#0-9999: 2/6 = 850, 2/7 = 650 (-200), 2/15 = 649 (-1), 2/21 = 648 (-1), 3/3 = 11 (-637), 3/8 = 10 (-1)
#10000-19999: 2/6 = 925, 2/7 = 727 (-198), 2/15 = 696 (-31), 2/21 = 691 (-5), 3/3 = 7 (-684)
#20000-29999: 2/6 = 992, 2/7 = 810 (-182), 2/15 = 806 (-4), 2/21 = 803 (-3), 3/3 = 8 (-795)
#30000-39999: 2/6 = 2023, 2/7 = 1946 (-77), 2/12 = 1945 (-1), 2/15 = 943 (-1002), 3/3 = 8 (-935)
#40000-49999: 2/6 = 1603, 2/7 = 1512 (-91), 2/15 = 513 (-999), 2/21 = 512 (-1), 3/3 = 248 (-264)
#50000-59999: 2/6 = 53, 2/7 = 45 (-8), 3/3 = 4 (-41)
#70000-73729: 2/7 = 1 (+1)
totals: 2/6 = 6446, 2/7 = 5691 (-755), 2/12 = 5689 (-2), 2/15 = 3652 (-2037), 2/21 = 3642 (-10), 3/3 = 286 (-3356), 3/8 = 285 (-1)

"Your donation is ready to be shipped and is in our shipping queue. Please check back with us every few days for updates If you have received this same response after several days (2 weeks or more) please contact Donor Services to verify your shipping info"
#0-9999: 2/6 = 57, 2/7 = 83 (+26), 2/13 = 141 (+58), 2/15 = 280 (+139), 2/19 = 294 (+14), 3/3 = 352 (+58), 3/8 = 353 (+1)
#10000-19999: 2/6 = 124, 2/7 = 159 (+35), 2/13 = 198 (+39), 2/15 = 366 (+168), 2/19 = 424 (+58), 3/3 = 434 (+10)
#20000-29999: 2/6 = 252, 2/7 = 293 (+41), 2/13 = 322 (+29), 2/15 = 418 (+96), 2/19 = 471 (+53), 3/3 = 591 (+120), 3/8 = 592 (+1)
#30000-39999: 2/6 = 282, 2/7 = 312 (+30), 2/13 = 354 (+42), 2/15 = 1509 (+1155), 2/19 = 1522 (+13), 3/3 = 612 (-910), 3/8 = 615 (+3)
#40000-49999: 2/6 = 258, 2/7 = 293 (+35), 2/13 = 334 (+41), 2/15 = 1460 (+1126), 2/19 = 1573 (+113), 2/21 = 1572 (-1), 3/3 = 614 (-958), 3/8 = 617 (+3)
#50000-59999: 2/6 = 112, 2/7 = 137 (+25), 2/13 = 183 (+46), 2/15 = 216 (+33), 2/19 = 389 (+173), 3/3 = 462 (+73), 3/8 = 477 (+15)
#60000-69999: 2/6 = 297, 2/7 = 336 (+39), 2/13 = 412 (+76), 2/15 = 457 (+45), 2/19 = 769 (+312), 3/3 = 1010 (+241), 3/8 = 1038 (+28)
#70000-73729: 2/6 = 171, 2/7 = 186 (+15), 2/13 = 222 (+36), 2/15 = 405 (+183), 2/19 = 552 (+147), 3/3 = 582 (+30), 3/8 = 592 (+10)
totals: 2/6 = 1553, 2/7 = 1799 (+246), 2/13 = 2166 (+367), 2/15 = 5111 (+2945), 2/19 = 5994 (+883), 2/21 = 5993 (-1), 3/3 = 4657 (-1336), 3/8 = 4718 (+61)

"Your donation is ready to be shipped and is in our shipping queue. Unfortunately, we are awaiting new laptop inventory to fulfill your donation. We expect additional inventory to reach our warehouse from the last week in February through the end of March,"
#0-9999: 2/19 = 905 (+905), 3/3 = 847 (-58), 3/8 = 846 (-1)
#10000-19999: 2/19 = 274 (+274), 3/3 = 264 (-10)
#20000-29999: 2/19 = 568 (+568), 3/3 = 449 (-119), 3/8 = 448 (-1)
#30000-39999: 2/19 = 439 (+439), 3/3 = 350 (-89), 3/8 = 347 (-3)
#40000-49999: 2/6 = 35, 2/19 = 539 (+504), 2/26 = 538 (-1), 3/3 = 511 (-27), 3/8 = 508 (-3)
#50000-59999: 2/6 = 4054, 2/7 = 4051 (-3), 2/13 = 4036 (-15), 2/15 = 4031 (-5), 2/19 = 4358 (+327), 3/3 = 4284 (-74), 3/8 = 4269 (-15)
#60000-69999: 2/6 = 7899, 2/7 = 7898 (-1), 2/13 = 7875 (-23), 2/15 = 7871 (-4), 2/19 = 8472 (+601), 2/26 = 8471 (-1), 3/3 = 8230 (-241), 3/8 = 8202 (-28)
#70000-73729: 2/6 = 3150, 2/7 = 3145 (-5), 2/13 = 3139 (-6), 2/15 = 3137 (-2), 2/19 = 3174 (+37), 3/3 = 3144 (-30), 3/8 = 3134 (-10)
totals: 2/6 = 15138, 2/7 = 15129 (-9), 2/13 = 15085 (-44), 2/15 = 15074 (-11), 2/19 = 18729 (+3655), 2/26 = 18727 (-2), 3/3 = 18079 (-648), 3/8 = 18018 (-61)

[RandB]

Thankyou drtoast for one of the most informative postings posted on the olpc forums.

It clearly shows how they are shipping these based on the Reference Numbers and that very little of the last three groups have been shipped.

My Reference Number is 70000713xx, so quite obviously it will be one of the last couple of thousand to be shipped. Would much prefer that it would come sooner, but at least I know that for a while I do not need to anxiously check around the other doorstep at 10PM every night when I get home to see if it is sitting there like a rolled up newspaper waiting to be picked up, preferably by myself.

Had OLPC, or Patriot, or Brightstar posted this type of information on the forums at regular intervals they would have saved me and likely several others some worry.

Perhaps one of the volunteers can post this type of information weekly along with some information on how many are likely to be shipped that week. Its not a military secret and likely there is someone who can quickly provide some information to the volunteer to pass on to us patient donors.

[drtoast]

OK, seems like there's some interest in this I'll let the script keep running each night, and have modified it so it will do a nightly upload of the raw stats file and a quickie HTML version here:

http://dr.toast.dj/olpc/

Enjoy!

j

[Infamy]

Excellent metric. I was waiting to see how long it would take for this to happen. Just keep in mind one thing: That database has a poor track record for being updated in a timely manner, and only reflects what patriot thinks it knows.

Your numbers are a bit off, but I am actually quite sure it isn't anything you are doing that is the issue

Cheers,

Infamy

[mattd]

Your numbers are a bit off

Please feel free to post the real numbers. We'd all be interested in the 'official' stats that correspond with drtoast's numbers.

Though I'm just reiterating RandB's (and probably every other G1G1'ers) request.

Had OLPC, or Patriot, or Brightstar posted this type of information on the forums at regular intervals they would have saved me and likely several others some worry.

Perhaps one of the volunteers can post this type of information weekly along with some information on how many are likely to be shipped that week. Its not a military secret and likely there is someone who can quickly provide some information to the volunteer to pass on to us patient donors.

[thatseattleguy]

Dr. Toast, thank you SO much for keeping your scripts running. Hard data vs PR spin and lies: I know which *I* prefer.

So, we're coming up on FIVE MONTHS after the start of the G1G1 program, and from what I can see from your cold, hard output, there are still at least 5500 orders waiting, unshipped (2088 + 3447 = 5535). And that doesn't include all the people with defective, returned machines waiting for fulfillment of their RMAs (<cough> like ME <cough>). So, figuring a 4% failure rate (conservative) x 50,000 machines shipped (also conservative) and only 1/3 of those RMAs reshipped (probably conservative as well, from what I'm hearing) = ...well, in grand total we're talking maybe 7000 people without working systems in their hands, 4-5 months after they gave their money to XO?

And noting from the same scripts, and the new 4/3/08 data, we see that 1,100 folks canceled their G1G1 orders. Or about $440,000 worth. Wonder how many did so after the 30 day limit when they realized they weren't going to see any machine anytime soon?

I'm sure XO fanboyz, who think the organization can do no wrong, will have some hand-waving excuse....but to me this is just more evidence of the same old, same old from an bunch of clowns the rest of the world has already written off as both arrogant and incompetent beyond belief.

[CaptainCanuk]

I found the ordering stats interesting too. I notice from your posts that a person should get more than one email telling them that their order is processed and then get notification of where it is in the process. I have only received the very first one telling me that I have a reference number but whenever I go to the page to track the order it tells me that my order has been shipped but there is no tracking number. ???????
What has happened???

[CaptainCanuk]

After my posting to several forums and a lengthy email to both help and support last night (May 1), I received am email from support this morning(May 2) and an answer to the missing laptop.

The response to teh emails was much faster than what I have experienced in the past and I thank support for your taking my concern seriously. My laptop had been returned to the warehouse.

Emily at support told me that they would ship another one right away by Fedex. I will post again when I receive my laptop or the limit of my patience again which ever comes first.